Weight Matters – Analysis & Picks for Betting on the “Cigar Mile” at Aqueduct

NEW YORK — By Ed DeRosa

A trio of horses exiting two very different types of races will “meet in the middle” and face nine others in a competitive Cigar Mile on Saturday at Aqueduct.

Leading the dozen is multiple graded stakes winner Senor Buscador, last seen finishing seventh–beaten just 5 ¼ lengths–to White Abarrio in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at long odds. Now he’s the 7-to-2 morning line favorite for this.

The Classic is 1 ¼ miles. The Breeders’ Cup Sprint, which Host the Gold and Three Technique last raced in, is a 6-furlong test, so they’re stretching out to a one-turn mile after finishing sixth and eighth, respectively, behind Elite Power whereas Senor Buscador is cutting back.

But distances are not the reason I bring them up, class is. Breeders’ Cup participation will attract money. I expect these three horses to be over-bet because they were in the Breeders’ Cup. Sure, Three Technique and Hoist the Gold are 8-to-1 on the morning line, and that’s by no means an awful price, but it’s not a fair price.

Of the 9 other horses in the Cigar Mile, 7 are also exiting stakes, though none as lucrative as the Breeders’ Cup. There is a horse stepping up in class, however, that caught my attention.

#9 Castle Chaos is 30-to-1 on the morning line for his stakes debut. He has won three races, including at this track and distance last out. He can improve in this race, too, since this will be his second start in a 3-month period. He also picks up good jockey Dylan Davis and only carries 116 pounds. 

Handicapping horses with weight has gone out of vogue in racing, so you do not hear as much about weight as a handicapping factor, but in a game so often decided by inches, er noses, every pound counts, and Senor Buscador is carrying 7 more pounds than is Castle Chaos. In fact, the 123 impost for Senor Buscador is the highest in the field, which is another reason I do not care for him at a short price.

#2 Everso Mischievous interests me a bit. Like Castle Chaos, he won his last start at this track and distance, albeit against stakes company. As a three-year-old, he gets a few pounds against the older foes in here, and with the inside draw should get out front in this race early.

My wagering strategy is to bet Castle Chaos to win and in exactas and trifectas with #2 also being in the mix.

GOOD LUCK!