March 7, 2024
NEW MEXICO — By Ed DeRosa
Before we get to the Albert and Henry Dominguez Memorial Handicap on Friday at Sunland Park, some personal news: I am playing in my first-ever National Handicapping Championship next week.
I bring this up mostly to brag, but also to segue into the handicapping mindset it takes to win a contest of this size: lots of longshots. You can’t just play a bunch of favorites and expect to accumulate the needed score to cash. You need big prices.
It was with that in mind that I approached the Dominguez Memorial. Unfortunately, I cannot make a strong case for a longshot as the pick, but there is some good news in that this is a playable race.
Based on the morning line, which is a track provided odds line that projects what each horse’s win odds will be, there are four clear contenders in this race: #1 All Chrome, #3 Thunder Dome, #4 One Mark, and #5 I’magambler.
The last of those four, I’magambler, is the 5-2 favorite on the morning line, and I not only agree that he will be favorite but also agree with the public that he is the most likely winner.
From a running style standpoint, the other three contenders all figure to be closing from the back half of the field, and I see that as a tremendous advantage to I’magambler because the others will have to catch him late and Sunland plays favorably to those with early speed.
In fact, I think the other three contenders are completely opposable here, and the key to cashing in on this race is getting one of the longer shots underneath our top pick I’magambler.
Both #2 Ar Ya Weegee and #7 Ancient Land figure to be the frontrunners but neither interests me. They’re just not better than I’magambler, who should be able to reel them in. That leaves #8 Bodie Got Gold and #9 Henry on the Run as the logical alternatives with our top pick. And who can resist a horse named Henry on the Run in the Albert and Herny Dominguez Memorial Handicap.
The Bets:
- $1 exacta box 5, 8, 9 ($6)
- $2 exacta key box 5 with 8, 9 ($8)
- $3 exacta key 5 over 8, 9 ($6).
That’s $20 total bet. Good luck!
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