March 6, 2025
FLORIDA — By Ed DeRosa
With apologies to Tampa Bay Downs announcer Jason Beem for completely and shamelessly stealing his line, we’re in for another “Titanic tussle in Tampa” when the starter springs the latch on this year’s Tampa Bay Derby on Saturday.
I feel good about thinking last week had a good chance to produce a Kentucky Derby following good-looking wins by Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park and Journalism in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita (and Barnes wasn’t bad in there when second either), and while that trio has strength in numbers, the Tampa Bay Derby winner could be right there with them.
From a Kentucky Derby perspective, Chancer McPatrick is probably the most exciting Tampa Bay Derby perspective. Already a Grade 1 winner, Chancer McPatrick was up against it in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile when closing to be sixth against gate-to-wire winner (and eventual champion Citizen Bull), and I worry a similar fate awaits him here off the layoff. There is not a lot of speed in this Tampa Bay Derby, and I’m inclined to watch one at a short price but will not give up on him.
Speaking of pace, there are a few entrants here who prefer to be forward but do not think that will bother Owen Almighty from the rail, as jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. will have to decide between trying to win gate-to-wire or saving ground behind a pace setter.
Either option should allow Owen Almighty to get the jump on the three more likely contenders based on morning line price: the aforementioned Chancer McPatrick, his Chad Brown stablemate Hill Road (who was third in the Juvenile for a different trainer), and Patch Adams, a disappointing fourth when the odds-on favorite in the Southwest Stakes.
Owen Almighty is a strong play for me at the morning line price of 5-to-1, and him being the projected fourth choice makes him a very viable lean in multi-race wagers.
As for the other contenders, I greatly prefer Patch Adams to either of the Brown pair. Patch Adams has one of the fastest races of any horse in his crop, and granted, that was a maiden win going one turn, but he should improve off that Southwest, and I like that he never missed any work coming off that dud. It’s now or never for him.
Hill Road just doesn’t seem fast enough. That Breeders’ Cup third sticks out, and Brown taking control and adding blinkers certainly intrigues, but the price is just too short for me here.
The Bet:
I will bet Owen Almighty to win and in an exacta key box with Patch Adams and Chancer McPatrick.
