April 24, 2025
KENTUCKY — By Ed DeRosa
The final pick 3 of the Keeneland spring meeting begins with the Bewitch Stakes and concludes with a full field maiden race in a turf sandwich with a high-level allowance as its meat.
There are two obvious favorites in the first two legs of this pick three, so structuring winning pick 3 plays to launch us into opening weekend at Woodbine and Derby week at Churchill Downs will take some prudence to eliminate short-priced combos.
Race 8 is the Bewitch Stakes is a 1 ½-mile stakes for older fillies and mares with No. 3 Forever After All the 9-to-5 (and worthy) morning line favorite. She was pace compromised in her last two starts, and that is a slight concern here, but there is definitely some pace present, and she is the most likely winner here.
Race 9 is leg 2 of the pick 3 and features the return of No. 1 Unmatched Wisdom, who began his career undefeated in three starts before trying a pair of Grade 1 races. He was not up to that task but showed enough to discern he is better than this group.
The biggest question mark surrounds the 7-month layoff and returning at 1 ⅛ miles. Trainer Chad Brown debuted this horse at a one-turn mile and his second career start was at nine furlongs, so that gives me some confidence that distance is what this horse wants. The rail and Flavien Prat staying aboard helps as well.
Thankfully, after highlighting two favorites in the first two legs, we like some bigger prices in race 10, the final leg of the pick 3 and last race of the meeting. This turf maiden race has 16 entered, so watch for scratches and who’s in or out.
We like two of the inside horses in No. 2 Sweet Freedom and No. 3 Sardis. Both have had a lot of opportunities to win, but not much turf experience. Sweet Freedom returns to turf after some synthetic races at Turfway. Sardis ran 7 ½ furlongs on turf last out and could improve here stretching out with Luis Saez getting the assignment. It is possible the jockey race, which is between Flavien Prat, Irad Ortiz Jr., Jose Ortiz, and Saez as of this writing Thursday morning, could come down to this race.
The Bets:
Pick 3 wise, my main ticket will be 3 with 1 with 2, 3. That’s only $10 for at a $5 base.
I will also fold in leg 1 longshots 4, 8, 9 with Unmatched Wisdom in leg 2. Using those prices in leg one will allow me to use logical horses such as No. 7 Tickled Quest and No. 11 Sumood in the final leg. That’s 4, 8, 9 with 1 with 2, 3, 7, 11, which is $12 for a $1 base. Total bet is $22.