January 13, 2024
KENTUCKY — By Ed DeRosa
So you like the favorite horse in a race? Now what?
Well, I know it’s not sexy to bet the lowest odds on the board to win, but if you could always get 6-to-5 on a coin flip then you’d never have to work again.
That’s my way of saying that being prepared to bet to win should always be a part of your strategy.
What else could make sense? Well, even if you agree with the public on the most likely winner, there is a chance you will not agree with the public on the most likely horses to finish behind that winner in payoff positions for exotic wagers such as exacta (top two), trifecta (top three), and superfecta (top four).
I like looking at the superfecta pool when I have an opinion about a longshot who can finish among the top four. I especially like it when that opinion complements an overlaid favorite because so many people structure their superfectas in one of two ways: They either A) box all the horses they like or B) pick a horse to win and then use a bunch underneath.
I will stop short of saying that it’s never right to do these things, but far more often than not, this is not the best way to play superfectas (or trifectas).
Enter the aforementioned strategy of using a favorite in the win spot and a longshot underneath. Enter further the Likely Exchange Stakes (Race 8) on Saturday night at Turfway Park to put this plan into action.
#8 Flashy Gem is the 5-to-2 morning line favorite for this $125,000 stakes race at one mile for fillies and mares. She was ultra impressive in an allowance race as a prep for this and looks to further benefit from the pace set up. She is a strong win candidate and worth a bet at 8-to-5 or higher.
#7 Thisnameisokay is 12-to-1 on the morning line and likely to be overlooked in the final betting. She is one of several in here who likes to race on the front end, and that could scare some people off her. I do think that makes her tough to like to win, but she has shown ability to kick on late after running fast early, and it would not surprise me to see her hang on for second, third, or fourth at a square price.
So how do we bet it? Well, the other horses that wouldn’t shock me for the other spots are #s 1, 2, 6, 9, & 10.
When betting here, I would do something like 10-cent superfecta part wheel 8 with 7 with 1, 2, 6, 9, 10 with 1, 2, 6, 9, 10 ($2) then 8 with 1, 2, 6, 9, 10 with 7 with 1, 2, 6, 9, 10 ($2) and finally 8 with 1, 2, 6, 9, 10 with 1, 2, 6, 9, 10 with 7 ($2). So for $6 per dime combination you get a bunch of superfecta plays needing #8 to win, #7 to finish 2nd, 3rd, or 4th, and then two of 1, 2, 6, 9, and 10 in the other two positions.
Good luck!
