June 27, 2024
KENTUCKY — By Ed DeRosa
Obviously I love to gamble on horse racing, but I am also a fan of the sport itself and sometimes find myself gravitating toward certain horses as I would a favorite sports team.
Unfortunately, in this pari-mutuel game, popular horses mean short prices, so it is not too often that a fan favorite provides great wagering opportunity, but that is not the case on Saturday at Churchill Downs where Skippylongstocking will not be the favorite in the $1-million Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill Downs.
I latched on to “Skippy” in spring 2022 when I thought he had a longshot look in that year’s Preakness Stakes. He ran an OK fifth that day behind Early Voting and Epicenter, but I did not give up on him heading into the Belmont Stakes three weeks later. Making him a key part of my trifecta play with the Todd Pletcher-trained Mo Donegal and Nest resulted in one of the biggest scores of my life thanks to a fourth-place finish in the Belmont Stakes Betting Challenge.
He will not be 11.8-to-1 in the Stephen Foster like he was in the Belmont, but the presence of First Mission means I do think we will get fair value.
The Stephen Foster is one of six stakes on the 12-race card and the penultimate leg of all the big-time all-stakes pick N wagers: pick 6 (races 7-12), pick 5 (8-12), and pick 4 (9-12). I expect to use Skippylongstocking as a strong single here in the hopes that he not only gets his first Grade 1 victory but also gets that win-and-you’re-in berth to the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Nov. 2nd at Del Mar.
The last race of the day is the Tepin Stakes for three-year-old fillies, and I have enough questions about morning line favorite #8 Pipsy and two turns to take a shot against her. #1 Simply in Front ran well on this course and at this distance last time, and #5 Poolside with Slim was tenacious in capturing the Penn Oaks last out and seems to be an improving three-year-old.
The Kelly’s Landing Stakes is race 10 and kicks off the final pick 3 of the day, and there are some big question marks surrounding known names like #7 Angkor and #8 Bango–neither of which ran close to their best races last time out.
#5 Hoist the Gold is the morning line favorite and certainly comes with some major name recognition, but he, too, has taken a step backward in his most recent tries. He’s definitely a toss as the chalk.
I will not try to separate #4 Tejano Twist, who I see as the most consistent of this group, and #6 Closethegame Sugar, who ran fastest last out.
THE BET:
Churchill Downs, Race 10, $5 pick 3 part wheel #4, #6 with #9 with #1, #5
Total = $20
