NFL Week 1 – Horse Racing Picks

After months of sitting in front of the TV, feverishly checking our phones for updates on our favourite team and players, the wait is finally over – the NFL is back! It’s time to celebrate the first full slate of gridiron glory in style, and what better way to do that than combining the love we share for football with the passion we feel for horse racing.

To gear you up for what should be an eventful first week of action, we’ve taken five races from this weekend’s jam-packed schedule and compared them to NFL games for your betting pleasure.

Race: Singspiel Stakes, Woodbine Racetrack, September 9

NFL Game: San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1:00 p.m. EST., September 10

The eight-horse field for Saturday’s $150,000 Singspiel Stakes features an intriguing mix of favourites and middle-of-the-pack options, without any clear long shots. From the top of the board down, the opening line odds range from 2-1 to 20-1.

In between all of that is Michael Doyle trainee Malibu Mambo. The 6-year-old gelding, who heads into the contest at 6-1, has come on strong as of late, going 1-2-0 in his last three races. His recent trajectory resembles that of the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team that just missed out on a playoff berth after winning its final four regular season games.

The Steelers start their 2023-24 campaign at home against the NFC powerhouse San Francisco 49ers as +2.5-point underdogs.

Picks: Malibu Mambo to win; Steelers (+2.5)

Race: New Kent County Virginia Derby, Colonial Downs, September 9

NFL Game: Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:25 p.m. EST., September 10

What do you get when seven members of an 11-horse field own opening line odds of 10-1 or lower? The Virginia Derby. This Saturday’s $500,000 showdown at Colonial Downs does boast an undefeated 5-2 favourite in Program Trading (GB), but the colt only has three career races under his belt.

Sunday afternoon’s coastal showdown between the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers, like the Virginia Derby, has all the makings of a track meet. Going into the affair, the Justin Herbert-led Chargers are 3.0-point favourites, but in a game rich with talent, that’s not the number I’m concerned about.

For me, the 51.5 over/under is more representative of the Virginia Derby for two reasons. One, the Chargers will always be the Chargers until they’re not, and that’s a great offensive team that’s always forced to outduel an opponent rather than shut them down. Two, until we see them do that, it will be difficult to take them to cover the spread. In that case, make the necessary pivot.

Picks: Program Trading to win; over 51.5

Race: Global Tote Juvenile Fillies Stakes, Kentucky Downs, September 10

NFL Game: Green Bay Packer at Chicago Bears, 1:00 p.m. EST., September 10

Sunday’s Global Tote Juvenile Fillies Stakes at Kentucky Downs will be a battle of the up-and-comers. The $500,000, 1-mile contest carries a deep 13-horse field, anchored by Irish-bred Kodiac Wintergreen (3-1) and Kentucky native, Sea Dancer (9-2). With just two races under their respective belts, the pair will duke it out on Sunday for a shot at a career-defining victory.

Keeping the youth-movement theme alive, let’s venture north up the I-65 to Soldier Field for an afternoon meeting between two of the NFL’s most historic franchises. Besides a rich legacy and sharing the same division, these two teams have something else in common: young, but promising quarterbacks.

The Jordan Love era in Green Bay is here and his first task is to do what his predecessor, Aaron Rodgers, did best, beat the Bears. Now, I’m not expecting Love to go 24-5 against the Monsters of the Midway, but I do expect him to make a statement as +1.0-point road underdogs against emerging QB Justin Fields and the new-look Bears.

Picks: Sea Dancer to win; Packers (+1.0)

Race: Runhappy Del Mar Futurity (G1), Del Mar Thoroughbred Club, September 10

NFL Game: Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens, 1:00 p.m. EST., September 10

What do the Baltimore Ravens and Prince of Monaco have in common? They’re both overwhelming favourites on Sunday.

Prince of Monaco, a 2-year-old colt who was purchased for just under $1 million ($950,000, to be exact), has his sights set on a regal performance in Sunday’s Runhappy Del Mar Futurity. Opening as the 2-5 favourite, the Bob Baffert pupil comes into his first Grade 1 challenge lightly raced, with just two career runs to his name, but winning both in convincing fashion.

In Baltimore, the Ravens open their season as -9.5-point favourites, the largest spread of any Week 1 game. Now, part of that is the fact they will be facing rookie second overall pick, C.J. Stroud, who’s making his NFL debut on the road, without his starting right tackle, center, and guard against a stout Ravens front.

Look, anything can happen in football, just as it can in horse racing, but the odds, at least going into the game, don’t lie.

Picks: Prince of Monaco to win; Ravens (-9.5)

Race: Canadian Stakes, Woodbine Racetrack, September 9

NFL Game: Buffalo Bills at New York Jets, 8:15 p.m. EST., September 11

The third and final stakes on Saturday’s 12-race card at Woodbine is none other than the aptly named Canadian Stakes. Leading the pack in the $200,000 Grade 2 dash is 5-year-old favourite, defending Canadian Stakes champ Fev Rover (IRE), at 8-5, and recent Grade 2 Dance Smartly Stakes winner Miss Dracarys at 5-2.

The former claimed the Grade 1 Beverly D. Stakes in her last showing to improve her 2023 campaign line to 2-0-1. Not to be outdone, Miss Dracarys claimed victory in her last three races.

I don’t know about you, but these two equine superstars sound like they’re on an awfully similar path as the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets. The AFC East foes round out Week 1 in a primetime battle on Monday night at MetLife stadium. Oddsmakers are leaning in favour of the reigning division champion Bills, positioning them as -2.5-point favourites leading up to kick off.

Picks: Fev Rover (IRE) to win; Bills (-2.5)