April 7, 2025
KENTUCKY — By Ed DeRosa
A lot is on the line in the Blue Grass Stakes on Tuesday at Keeneland Race Course: A $1.25-million purse, Grade 1 status, and spots in the Kentucky Derby.
All seven of the Blue Grass entrants have some points on The Road to the Kentucky Derby but only Owen Almighty (11th, 65 points) has enough points as is to guarantee a spot in the Derby starting gate on May 3 at Churchill Downs.
That sets up a sort of race-within-a-race dynamic whereby horses like Chancer McPatrick (24th, 35 points), Burnham Square (27th, 30 points), Render Judgement (28th, 29 points), and River Thames (29th, 25 points) do not need to win or even finish second to have enough points for the Derby. East Avenue (32nd, 10 points) and Admiral Dennis (34th, 2 points) likely need to win or be second for a Derby berth.
This is a betting game, though, and we’re betting to win in the Blue Grass Stakes. Burnham Square is the selection based on a better-than-it-looks fourth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
“Paper” handicappers may be compelled to see that as a step backward off his Holy Bull Stakes win, but that was a weird trip in the Fountain of Youth, and he never quit when staying on to be fourth. He finished behind River Thames that day but beat next-out Florida Derby winner Tappan Street in the Holy Bull.
With plenty of pace in here, I’ll bet that Burnham Square can get the jump on Chancer McPatrick and outfinish that one to the wire for the win. The 9-to-2 morning line price would be fair value.
Speaking of Chancer McPatrick, he is my second selection given the aforementioned pace expectation. I think he’ll be a shorter price than Burnham Square and have more to do late. However, a good finish and move forward ratings wise could make him dangerous in the Kentucky Derby.
I’m bearish on River Thames mostly because of the morning line favoritism. He can win, obviously, but looks to be too short a price. Owen Almighty will have more company up front than in the Tampa Bay Derby when he beat Chancer McPatrick gate to wire. East Avenue’s best race was going two turns at Keeneland, but his last two were too dreadful to play him to run back to better than his best at a short price.
