December 27, 2024
CALIFORNIA — By Ed DeRosa
The limb I am going out on to say that the Frankel Stakes on Friday at Santa Anita Park is a three-horse race is more a full on branch than a twig, but eliminating more than half the field has some merit, and there are other clues to point toward some value in this 1 ⅛-mile Grade 3 turf race at the Great Race Place
Any time I like more than two horses in a race, my first step is to determine if any of the horses I like will be favored. I am OK with using multiple horses without the favorite, but I very rarely want to be three or more deep AND have the favorite. Why would I want the shortest price on the board if I like 2 (or more) horses about the same?
The three horses I like in the Frankel are the top three choices on the morning line, so it is safe to assume one of them will be the favorite. #4 Rashmi, #6 Mouffy, and #7 Hang the Moon are the only three in here you need, and Hang the Moon is the clear morning line choice at 9-to-5.
The favoritism is understandable given she is a perfect 2-for-2 at Santa Anita, and the second of that pair was a Grade 2 win in the Rodeo Drive before a disappointing finish in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf.
Now, obviously, going from a Grade 2 to the Breeders’ Cup is a big step up, so I hate holding the dud against her, but Ragozin has that as a big step backward from the Rodeo Drive, which was her lifetime best. Eight weeks is plenty of time between starts, but it is still hard for me to think she gets anywhere close to that Rodeo Drive number here.
Between the other two, I prefer Rashmi, a three-year-old filly with some upside here, as she gets 7 pounds from the older females and stretches out to 1 ⅛ miles for her stakes debut. Given her breeding (her sire is Woodbine Mile winner Oscar Performance), this stretchout to be to her advantage especially since she has early speed.
Mouffy is dangerous because several of her best races are competitive here, including a pair of stakes tries at Santa Anita in which she ran good seconds in both. The Goldikova last out does not look like anything special, but she got going late after some minor trouble. I see it as a much better race than Hang the Moon’s.
From a wagering perspective, I’d bet the longer of either Mouffy or Rashmi as long as the price is at least 4-to-1. Either way, if Hang the Moon is favored then I’ll play a 4-6 exacta box.
There are a lot of fun multi-race wagers at Santa Anita, including a $3 late pick 3 (races 7, 8, 9) and a $3 all-turf Pick 3. I will use 4,6 in those; again, trying to beat the favorite.
