February 20, 2025
KENTUCKY — By Ed DeRosa
With ten weeks between the Cincinnati Trophy Stakes on Friday at Turfway Park and the Kentucky Oaks on May 2 at Churchill Downs, the race for points is officially on.
Like the Kentucky Derby, horses qualify for the Kentucky Oaks earning points in designated prep races. Unlike the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Oaks only has 14 starters versus 20, so points are more valuable for the filly race.
The Trophy is one such points race and is worth 20 points to the winner. Other races going forward (such as as the UAE Oaks on Friday in Dubai and the Honeybee on Sunday at Oaklawn) can be worth as much as 50 points to the winner with 100-points-to-the-winners races starting on March 22.
This is a competitive race, too. I.e. the five fillies who earn points will have had to earn it against this group–a competitive field of 12 going one mile on the synthetic Tapeta (the same surface Woodbine has).
I landed on Girl Math as the most likely winner, but I am a little concerned at what her price will be given the presence of Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavian Prat, who is sure to help this filly take money. Still, she is super talented, and if I needed to make a show bet for life it would be on her.
The two fillies I like best will be familiar to Woodbine fans as they finished first and fifth, respectively, in the Mazarine Stakes last year: Somethinabouther and Foxtastic.
Neither filly has raced since the Mazarine, and while a 2 ½-month layoff is not insignificant, it does not appear as if trainer Brendan Walsh has had to stop much on Somethinabouther, as she has been working steadily in Florida since the Mazarine win. I’m also encouraged by Declan Cannon retaining the mount not only because he has won on this filly but also because he is overall an underrated rider.
I’d want to make sure Foxtastic is a longshot price before using her, but she can be in the mix early and stick around for a piece.
The Bet:
My wagering strategy is to bet Somethinabouther to win and hook her up with Foxtastic in exotic wagers that include Girl Math and Admit. My toss is Bracelet, who just does not have speed figures to match with these but will take action being a recent winner trained by Brad Cox. She’s not for me, though.