January 17, 2025
LOUISIANA — By Ed DeRosa
The all-stakes pick 4 on Saturday at Fair Grounds is that magical combination of offering something for the horse racing fan in all of us as well as the hardened horseplayer.
The sequence begins and ends with points races for both the Kentucky Oaks and Derby, respectively, with the Silverbulletday for three-year-old fillies and the Lecomte for three-year-old males.
These races will give us some perspective on the strength of the Midwest/Southeast three-year-old division, though admittedly both look chalky. Thankfully, the middle legs–the Colonel Bradley for older male turf stars and the Louisiana for older males on dirt–look to offer more in the way of prices. As a pick 4 player I will spread in the races for older horses and try to get through the three-year-old races with fewer horses.
Race 9, the Silverbulletday Stakes (first leg of all-stakes pick 4)
This race features my most likely winner in the sequence in #3 Simply Joking. Her debut four weeks ago at Fair Grounds was scintillating, as she ran down a proven stakes filly after some initial trouble. That is a tall task for any first-time starter let alone one in a stakes.
The time came back fast, too, and while I’m not so sure about this one at the Kentucky Oaks distance of 1 ⅛ miles, she should handle her two-turn debut against these. SINGLE
Race 10, the Colonel Bradley Stakes (leg 2 of all-stakes pick 4)
I’m eager to see how this one gets bet, as it is a wide open field of 14 turf horses, only two of which I think have very little chance. One thing you can do as a horseplayer in leg 1 of a multi-race wager to see how leg 2 is going to get bet is look at the double will pays (this is similar to how you can look to see what the exactas are paying in each race).
I will definitely look ahead from the Silverbulletday to see who is getting bet here. Because I am leaning on the favorites in legs 1 and 4 of this all-stakes pick 4 bet, I do not want to be the short prices in this race.
Race 11, the Lousiaina Stakes (leg 3 of all-stakes pick 4)
While Race 9 (leg 1) features my most likely winner, this race has the horse I am most excited to bet. #5 Skinner makes his first start (barely) east of the Mississippi RIver for new trainer Cherie DeVaux and brings with him credentials that are very similar to that of likely favorite Hit Show’s. Sure, Hit Show has accumulated more wins and earnings, but from an assessing talent standpoint, both Skinner and Hit Show have flashed similar ability, and I’m going to side with the longer price here.
#6 Cooke Creek and #9 Komorebino Omoide are my back ups here. I don’t think Hit Show even has to hit the board against this trio, so there could be some opportunity in the exacta and trifecta pools, but this article is focused on the all-stakes pick 4, and I absolutely want to make it to this race live to #s 5, 6, & 9.
Race 12, the Lecomte Stakes (final leg of all-stakes pick 4)
THere are two three-year-olds in here who I think have just run better than anyone else in this field, and that is #1 Innovator and #13 Built. The big field has me concerned about the outside posts, but actually the opposite is true. The rail is not a great starting spot in full fields. I probably would have made Innovator my most likely winner if not for that stat, but that’s just splitting hairs really.
I want both #s 1 & 13 in the payoff leg. Innovator was second to Barnes in the latter’s debut, and he went on to win a stakes in his next start while Innovator was second in another stakes before breaking his maiden against maidens. Built had a field-best performance last out, and it was so good that it’s fair to wonder if that were an aberration, but it was his two-turn debut, and maybe this is just what he was built to do.
Pick 4 strategy:
My “main” ticket will be 3 with ALL with 5, 6, 9 with 1, 13, which is $42 assuming all 14 go in that second leg (the Colonel Bradley).
