July 25, 2024
DEL MAR PARK — By Ed DeRosa
Two diametrically opposed styles of races headline the top summer racing today, as the feature at Saratoga Race Course is a turf sprint while the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club headliner is a dirt marathon.
Of course, style is not related to substance, and as different as both races are they also both manage to offer wagering opportunity.
The graded stakes action begins at 5:45 p.m. ET with race 9 at Saratoga. The clear favorite is #10 Roses for Debra, who is 8-to-5 on David Aragona’s morning line and might go even lower, but she is no cinch here, and we are going to bet against her.
#4 Kaufymaker tried to wire several of these last time out. That was in her five-year-old debut off an 8-month layoff, so she was giving some recent experience away. She is in a better position to go gate-to-wire today especially carrying 6 less pounds than Roses for Debra.
#3 Future Is Now is dangerous considering she won this last time, but now she will carry the most weight of her career (124 pounds, like Roses for Debra), and things are conspiring in this spot to make Kaufymaker a little tougher to catch this time.
#8 Dontlookbackatall is the uncoupled stablemate of Roses from Debra from the Christophe Clement barn and is a must-use at that 10-1 morning line price given how good her last race was. Yeah, that was at Parx, but she’s worth a bet that she fits with these.
Lastly, #9 Zeitlos has raced over turf just once, and it was a fine runner-up effort. These are deep waters to return to the sod, but at 15-to-1 morning line for these connections she’s a must use.
Now, I’ve just given out four horses, so what do we do with them? Well, even though I’m fond of saying “boxes are for shoes” I think with being against the obvious favorite in Roses for Debra, we can box up our other four. A 3, 4, 8, 9 exacta box costs $12. I’d also bet Kaufymaker to win at 9-to-2 or better.
As for the Cougar II Stakes, which is at 8p ET as race 7 at Del Mar, my strategy is more straight forward, as I love #2 Midnight Mammoth in this spot.
Trained by Craig Dollase, Midnight Mammoth has only been beyond 1 1/16 miles in one of his 31 career starts, so getting out to 1 ½ miles here is a mild concern, but his speed is a real advantage at this trip against this group. Win bet at anything more than 2-to-1.
The morning line favorites are #4 Salesman (8-to-5) and #3 Reincarnate (9-to-5). The former was not great in his seasonal debut when nonthreatening in the Santa Anita Handicap, but he did win a 1 ⅝-mile race last year. The latter has back class and top connections, but I think is up against it to reel in our top pick.
