October 5, 2023
KENTUCKY — By Jessica Paquette
Though the sports world may be focused on Red October, there is some serious action heating up at Keeneland this weekend with three significant Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” qualifying races on Friday as part of the star-studded opening day card.
There are three chances on the line to earn a berth in the Breeders’ Cup – the $500,000 Darley Alcibiades Stakes (GI) which qualifies the winner for the Juvenile Fillies (GI), the $350,000 JPMorgan Chase Jessamine Stakes (GII) a “Win and You’re In” for the Juvenile Fillies Turf (GI) and the $350,000 Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix (GII), which earns the winner a spot in the starting gate for the Sprint (GI).
The Phoenix has shaped up to be the most wide open of the three events and could be ripe for a big upset. At 20-1 on the morning line, Necker Island should be ignored at your own risk. Is he good enough to win? Maybe, maybe not but he is absolutely good enough to get into the exotics. For the most part this year, his form has been deceptively good and sneakily consistent and he has further upside making his second start back off of a mid-year freshening. Couple that with an interesting jockey change to Flavien Prat and he is a very interesting longshot.
Next up in the all stakes Pick three sequence is the Jessamine Stakes (GII) for juvenile fillies on the turf. Time to Dazzle makes her stakes debut after a scintillating maiden win at Woodbine and has an advantage over several rivals in that she has proven herself capable a mile or better. She looks like the one to beat but is not a lock – Toupie is an interesting longshot at morning line odds of 20-1. Her maiden win on dirt was very impressive and she took to the turf well in her stakes debut sprinting. In that race, she looked like just ran out of real estate and should improve significantly stretching out here.
All eyes will be on Brightwork in the Alcibiades Stakes (GI) as she tries to cement herself as the leader of the division and keep her perfect, undefeated record intact. Physically, this horse has blossomed in the second half of the year and just looks like she has gotten bigger, stronger and more professional since her Grade 1 win at Saratoga in early September. She is an easy single and an anchor for any horizontal sequence on the card.
(Photo: Coady Photography)
