July 11, 2024
ENGLAND — By Ed DeRosa
A familiar face to North American bettors headlines the Falmouth Stakes on Friday at Newmarket in the UK, where last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf runner up Porta Fortuna figures to be a heavy favorite off a big win in the Coronation Stakes three weeks ago at Royal Ascot.
She will be too heavy a favorite for my tastes, though, and I am looking to bet against this formidable filly who has never been off the board in nine career starts.
The next two choices behind Porta Fortuna are Running Line, also a winner of a stakes–albeit a Group 2–at Royal Ascot, and A Lilac Rolla, who suffered her first career defeat when second in the Irish 1,000 Guineas in late May.
I side with A Lilac Rolla, a winner of her first three career starts under W. J. “Billy” Lee, who returns for the Falmouth after not riding A Lilac Rolla when she lost. Her running style seems to fit this race, as she won from just off the pace in her previous victories at shorter distances, and now at one mile has a chance to win this one on the front end at a decent price.
Porta Fortuna and A Lilac Rolla are both three-year-old fillies. They each carry nine pounds less than older fillies and mares such as Running Lion. I am a handicapper who does think weight matters, and nine pounds is enough of a handicap on Running Lion to bet against her here.
The Bets:
I will bet A Lilac Rolla to win and a straight exacta underneath Porta Fortuna.
The Falmouth is not the only stakes action on Friday at Newmarket. The Duchess of Cambridge Stakes is a Group 2 race for two-year-old fillies. It is the meat of a two-year-old graded stakes sandwich this week that includes the Scuylerville on Thursday and the Sanford on Saturday both at Saratoga Race Course.
No surprise that a filly trained by Aidan O’Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore is the favorite for the Duchess of Cambridge. #5 Heavens Gate just missed last out in the Albany at Royal Ascot and no doubt has the class advantage here, but #10 Tales of the Heart really stayed on well in her turf and stakes debut last out and figures to improve here.
I will bet Tales of the Heart to win and bet an exacta Heavens Gate over Tales of the Heart.
