September 17, 2023
TORONTO — By Matthew Lomon
With all the holdouts, roster turnover, and TMZ-style drama that precedes the start of every NFL season, whacky Week 1’s are to be expected these days. We saw favourites get blown out, star players put on their best Houdini impressions (not great for us fantasy folk), and unexpected heroes rise to the occasion (great for us fantasy folk).
All of that culminated in a respectable, but not extraordinary 3-for-5 effort in last week’s column. Now that the dust has settled and players (hopefully) have their feet under them, let’s run it back for Week 2, and find the NFL game equivalent of five of the weekend’s biggest races.
Race: Natalma Stakes, Woodbine Racetrack, September 16
NFL Game: Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals, 1:00 p.m. EST., September 17
When you think of the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals, what comes to mind? Superstar quarterbacks, big-time offensive playmakers, strong-legged kickers? Those are all correct answers, but there’s one that’s “more correct” than the others: depth.
Both squads boast a surplus of star power on all sides of the ball, including special teams. Up and down the depth chart, there is not one real weak link on either team. The same can be said about the 15-horse field taking to the turf for this year’s running of the Natalma Stakes.
From 3-1 favourite Dazzling Star (GB) to a group of four rounding things out at 20-1, the field is deep in both quantity and quality. Young standouts Airosa (4-1) and Golden Canary (6-1) pose the biggest threats to Dazzling Star, as both enter the affair on the heels of victory.
Both contests should come down to the wire, so for that reason, I’ll side with the value, a.k.a. the non-favourites (even though I think the Bengals ultimately win the game).
Picks: Airosa to win; Ravens (+3.5)
*NOTE: Airosa is also entered in the Summer Stakes and could race there.
Race: Summer Stakes, Woodbine Racetrack, September 16
NFL Game: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:15 p.m. EST, September 18
The best way to express this next point would probably be with a Venn diagram reading “Cleveland Browns” on one side, “My Boy Prince” on the other, and “domination” in the middle. For context, the Browns trounced the aforementioned Bengals by three touchdowns last week, while My Boy Prince won by a stunning 14-lengths in the Simcoe Stakes on August 27.
Safe to say, expectations are high for both winners heading into the weekend.
My Boy Prince will have his first shot at proving his last performance wasn’t a fluke in Saturday’s $500,000 Summer Stakes. The lightly raced 2-year-old faces his stiffest test to date but has shown nothing to say he isn’t capable of competing at the highest level.
On Monday night under the lights, the Browns will try to prove the same thing on the road against the division rival Pittsburgh Steelers. Between you and me, the Browns being -2.5-point favourites is a gift, especially after what we saw from both teams in Week 1. What’s more, QB Kenny Pickett’s receiving corps is already banged up, and the Browns defense (finally) looks ferocious on all three levels.
Picks: My Boy Prince to win; Browns (-2.5)
Race: Woodbine Mile, Woodbine Racetrack, September 16
NFL Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1:00 p.m. EST., September 17
The main event on Saturday’s 12-race card at Woodbine is none other than the $1 million Woodbine Mile. Leading the six-horse pack is Irish-bred Master of The Seas, a 5-year-old gelding who’s gone 6-2-2 in 13 career starts. Oh, I conveniently forgot to mention that 11 of those races were graded/group stakes, and he won five of them.
Even if they couldn’t speak to each other, it seems Master of The Seas would get along quite nicely with Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. Through sustained dominance, the two have cemented themselves as juggernauts within their respective sports… and everyone wants to take them down.
For Mahomes, his latest test comes in Jacksonville against the ascending Jaguars and QB Trevor Lawrence. The dynamic squads met last year in the AFC Divisional round, where the Chiefs prevailed 27-20 despite an injury to their franchise QB. This time around, the Jaguars are looking to flip the script and hand Mahomes his first career loss to the teal and black.
Picks: Master of the Seas (IRE) to win; Jaguars (+3.5)
Race: Los Alamitos Special Stakes, Los Alamitos Race Course, September 17
NFL Game: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams, 4:05 p.m. EST, September 17
The $100,000 Los Alamitos Special is similar to the Woodbine Mile in that both events consist of a smaller field. While that’s about all they have in common, there’s another intriguing storyline to keep an eye on ahead of Race 9 in Los Alamitos, California.
Sunday’s battle on the dirt positions Arham (2-1), who has a total of 11 careers starts under his belt, against a group of veterans with 81 career starts between them.
That dynamic sounds eerily similar to Sunday afternoon’s divisional showdown between the high-octane San Francisco 49ers and been-there-done-that Los Angeles Rams. Second-year quarterback, Brock Purdy (10 NFL starts) will attempt to outduel a veteran Rams team powered by Super Bowl winning QB Matthew Stafford and legendary defensive tackle Aaron Donald.
In their two meetings last season, the 49ers won handily each time. However, Purdy had not yet been thrust into the starting role, and Stafford was dealing with a series of injuries that ultimately ended his season after Week 9.
The 49ers head into the first Purdy-Stafford tilt as 7-point favourites.
Picks: Arham to win; 49ers (-7)
Race: British Columbia Derby, Hastings Race Course, September 16
NFL Game: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans, 1:00 p.m. EST, September 17
If Jenna Fischer were sitting here and we held out two photos, one of the field for the British Columbia Derby and another of the preview for the Indianapolis Colts-Houston Texans game, she would, of course, tell us, “They’re the same picture.”
At Hasting Race Course, the 76th running of the $125,000 BC Derby (G3) seems like a toss-up between Sunbird (6-5) and Accidental Hero (2-1). These two runners have met in the past, the same way the Colts and Texans have done twice a year for the last 21 years. Sunbird won their first meeting in the BC Cup Trial, while Accidental Hero finished third. About three weeks later, the pair squared off in the Canadian Derby. Neither horse won, but Accidental Hero finished in third, landing two spots ahead of Sunbird.
For a rivalry so evenly matched, it only made sense to find the NFL game closest to a pick ‘em. Rookie first-round quarterbacks (and good friends) Anthony Richardson, who impressed in his NFL debut, and C.J. Stroud go head-to-head for the first time this Sunday. Oddsmakers are leaning towards the home team, labelling the Texans as early 1-point favourites.
Picks: Sunbird to win; Colts (+1.0)
