Published On: November 21st, 2023

2023 Horse of the Year Candidates: Predictions and Analysis

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KENTUCKY — By Ed DeRosa

Sometimes the Breeders’ Cup brings clarity to the “Horse of the Year” debate, other years–like this one–it brings even more debate.

Following North America’s championship day of racing on Nov. 4 at Santa Anita Park, six of the winners and one of the losers are worthy of Horse of the Year discussion. The Eclipse Awards recognize 3 finalists in each category, but each of the septet deserves some commentary:

Auguste Rodin… a two-time Group 1 winner in Europe, Auguste Rodin shipped to Santa Anita Park in California from his Ireland base and rode the rail to victory in a stirring rendition of the Breeders’ Cup Turf. He will not even be a finalist, but he merits inclusion on this list because it’s possible he was the best horse to race in North America this year.

Cody’s Wish… Some voters will refuse to separate the story from the accomplishments, and that’s OK. What Horse of the Year means has long been up to the interpretation of each voter. My style is there are plenty of other awards and accolades to honor what a horse does for racing away from the track, and while Cody’s Wish deserves all of those for being intertwined with Cody Dorman’s story, the fact remains the score is 1-1 heads up against White Abarrio with the latter horse winning the most prestigious Breeders’ Cup race. That said, if you take the Whitney away, Cody’s Wish is still a four-time Grade 1 winner, including one of our most prestigious races for older horses, the Met Mile. FINALIST

Cody's Wish racing

Photo – Coady Photography

Elite Power… His battles with Gunite defined the sprint division for 2023, and Elite Power comfortably got the better of his rival when it mattered most–in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint–but I just didn’t get the wow factor from him against his rivals like I did with the turf horses on this list. Sure, the Sprint Division wasn’t any better or worse than the Classic division, but all things being equal there, I’m going to side with the Classic-type horses.

Idiomatic… A gritty winner of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, Idiomatic is likely to be one of the most overwhelming winners of her division as champion older female. But winning that division does not a Horse of the Year (or even a finalist) make. I have a strict policy of only voting for horses who defeat “open company.” I.e., not races restricted to females or three-year-olds. The only exception to this rule is for a Triple Crown winner. Anyway, the other thing weighing on me regarding Idiomatic is that she would be by far the longest shot on the board against the other horses on this list.

Master of the Seas… that nose loss to Up to the Mark may have cost him Horse of the Year. After dispatching the Woodbine Mile field with ease, Master of the Seas went to Keeneland and just fell short to Up to the Mark before winning the Breeders’ Cup Mile over Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup winner Mawj. I love his two wins in two of our most prestigious grass mile races, but that loss to Up to the Mark keeps him out of the finalist triumvirate.

Up to the Mark… Got beat by Auguste Rodin, a loss that cost him not only the race but also the Horse of the Year title. I still see him as a finalist, though, because winning three Grade 1 races from a mile to 1 ¼ miles plus a second to one of the world’s best at 1 ½ miles is a hell of a campaign. FINALIST

White Abarrio… For me, the Whitney-Classic double carries the day (and year) even though the start of his season doesn’t come close to what he accomplished in the final two races of the year. Still, I think he’s the best horse to run in America this year, and it’s hard to imagine anyone beating him going 1 ⅛-1 ¼ miles on dirt. Yes, Cody’s Wish racked up more Grade 1 wins, but from a prestige standpoint, only the Met Mile matches either the Whitney or the Classic. HORSE OF THE YEAR

So, to borrow a popular Academy Awards prognostication trope…

 

WHO SHOULD WIN: White Abarrio

WHO WILL WIN: Cody’s Wish

 

WHO SHOULD BE FINALISTS: Cody’s Wish, Up to the Mark, White Abarrio

WHO WILL BE FINALISTS: Cody’s Wish, Idiomatic, White Abarrio