March 13, 2025
VIRGINIA — By Ed DeRosa
Horses and Virginia have been intertwined since the 1600s, and on Saturday that relationship will take another step forward when the commonwealth’s lone Thoroughbred dirt track plays host to Kentucky Derby and Oaks prep races.
Virginia is no stranger to Kentucky Derby glory, being the birthplace of 19 Derby runners the past 50 seasons including winners Secretariat, Pleasant Colony, and Sea Hero. Now the state gets a chance to see Kentucky Derby runners (and maybe the winner) run in it thanks to the Virginia Derby on Saturday at Colonial Downs.
And there is every reason to think the Virginia Derby can have Kentucky Derby implications given the presence of Racing Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert entering Sunland Park Derby winner Getaway Car. Of course, a good story for the locals does not necessarily mean a good betting opportunity, and Getaway Car is certain to be favored.
And understandably so given that Sunland race was an impressive performance that came on the heels of finishing second to Journalism in the Los Alamitos Futurity, and all the winner of that race–Journalism–came back to do is win the San Felipe Stakes over another highly regarded Baffert runner in the previously undefeated Barnes.
Add Irad Ortiz Jr. getting the mount on Getaway Car, and it’s easy to understand why he will be a short price, but that does not mean there will not be opportunity.
Thankfully, the companion race to the Virginia Derby–the Virginia Oaks as a prep race for the Kentucky Oaks–is super competitive and the type of race you can take a chance on a longer price.
Gowells Delight is the likely favorite in the Oaks, but that is pending her participation as racetrack rumors were swirling that she would scratch (as John Hancock is in the Virginia Derby).
If Gowells Delight runs then that makes #8 Fondly and #6 You’ll Be Back extremely playable. The former was awesome on debut and gets Ortiz as her jockey. The latter has shown improvement and figures to get a great trip.
If Gowells Delight does scratch, though, then both Fondly and You’ll Be Back are likely to be overbet. That opens the rest of the field up for a possible play. We’ll have the benefit of seeing the betting, but really, I’d just take the longest shots among Icona Mama, Low Key, Anonima, Early On, and Girl Math in a double with Getaway Car.
For the Virginia Derby itself, the scratch of John Hancock leaves American Promise as an intriguing price play. I’d bet that one to win and keyed underneath Getaway Car while trying to beat Rapture out of the trifecta completely.