February 27, 2025
KENTUCKY — By Ed DeRosa
If you haven’t gotten on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” yet, then this is where you get on because March 1 is a three-prep extravaganza featuring several of the biggest stars among this year’s current Triple Crown hopefuls.
In fact, I would go so far as to say that no weekend is more likely to produce the eventual Kentucky Derby winner than this one.
The Saturday lineup is (all times Eastern) the Gotham Stakes at 4:18 p.m. at Aqueduct, the Fountain of Youth Stakes at 5:44 at Gulfstream Park, and the San Felipe Stakes at 6:43 at Santa Anita Park. Each race offers 50 points to the winner.
The Gotham is interesting because I think it is the least likely of the three to produce a Kentucky Derby contender, let alone the winner, but it does have my best bet of the weekend in #5 Sand Devil.
This is an interesting race because it features two undefeated New York breds squaring off as the top two choices. But just because they will be bet equally does not mean they have equal talent, and that’s what makes Sand Devil so intriguing. He will be a similar price to Sacrosanct, but I have him as a much more likely winner.
Another New York-bred in the Gotham is Calling Card, and he is one of the few closers in the race. If the favorites go at it, then Calling Card can come collect at a big price. My Gotham wagering strategy will be to play Sand Devil to win at odds of 2-to-1 or better and exactas with Calling Card.
The Fountain of Youth features a classic Derby prep challenge of an established stakes performer in Holy Bull Stakes winner Burnham Square against up-and-comer River Thames , who is undefeated in two starts by 11 ¼ lengths.
I favor Burnham Square in this spot, but it’s close. Given that River Thames is the morning line favorite, though, makes me think that Burnham Square will be the better bet.
The San Felipe is the usual Bob Baffert versus the world with the Racing Hall of Fame trainer entering three of the six colts here, including the current Kentucky Derby favorite in Barnes. I actually bet Rodriguez in the last Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool at 29-to-1, so I’m excited to see him here.
All that said, though, I have to try to beat Baffert given his top pair here are likely to both be less than 2-to-1 odds. Journalism looked great last out winning the Los Alamitos Futurity, and there is nothing in his workouts to suggest he cannot move forward in his three-year-old debut. Do I think he’s the best of this bunch? No. Do I think they’re close enough in talent that betting the third choice makes the most sense? Yes.
