February 12, 2025
NEW ORLEANS — By Ed DeRosa
Good Cheer and East Avenue have a lot in common beyond both racing on Saturday at Fair Grounds: both are three-year-old Godolphin homebreds who figure to go favored in their respective Kentucky Oaks and Derby points races.
Most importantly for bettors, though, both have the looks of underlaid favorites. That is, yes either can obviously win, but they will be over-bet to do so.
Good Cheer is the 6-to-5 morning line choice to run her unbeaten streak to five in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes while East Avenue is 9-to-5 to rebound off his poor Breeders’ Cup Juvenile effort in the Risen Star Stakes. If those odds hold up (and they most certainly won’t in Good Cheer’s case), a $2 double between the Godolphin pair would likely pay about $12. And it will be lower than that, so maybe we can find another opportunity.
Ballerina d’Oro is scratching from the Rachel Alexandra. I did not like her much anyway, but being a Chad Brown trainee with Flavien Prat scheduled to ride, she would have taken money. Good Cheer will probably be odds on, so there is opportunity with Simply Joking, who likes to be lone speed against this bunch, and like Good Cheer is undefeated (albeit through only two starts).
I do not see a scenario where Good Cheer is aggressive early given the inside post and her run style through four races all show an ability to rate. She will have to stay in touch with Simply Joking, though, or Simply Joking will be gone in that deep Fair Grounds stretch.
The Risen Star is much more competitive than the two-horse Rachel Alexandra, which is a polite way of saying the favorite (East Avenue) does not have to win this race either. I don’t particularly like Jonathan’s Way, either, as it’s a tall ask for a son of Vekoma to go 1 ⅛ miles off a more than two-month layoff.
The trio I do like here is Vassimo, Septarian, and Built. Vassimo and Septarian both ship in from Florida for trainers Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown, respectively, and both of those Eclipse Award winners for outstanding trainer have shipped to Fair Grounds with similar horses and won, including Sierra Leone last year in this race.
Built is the local for trainer Wayne Catalano and is looking to rebound from a second-place finish in the Lecomte after winning the Gun Runner so impressively. So impressively, in fact, that he has the fastest speed figure (via Ragozin data) in this field. The value should be there on this one.
The Bets:
Wagering wise, I think there is an opportunity to gamble a bit against these favorites.
Simply Joking is the play in the Rachel Alexandra, and I will look to boost our return significantly by trying to beat the top two choices in the Risen Star. So the double would be 6 with 3, 7, 9.
GOOD LUCK and follow My Railbirds for my dispatches live from New Orleans!
