October 29, 2024
SAN DIEGO — By Ed DeRosa
Breeders’ Cup is upon us! We know for sure this will be the richest two days of racing in North America by purses, but we want this to be the richest two days of betting as well!
In order to do that, we’ll have to zero in on our best opinions. With 22 races on Nov. 1-2 at Del Mar, including 14 Breeders’ Cup races, it is easy to get overly excited about all the action. But much like it’s senseless to fill up on bread and pasta at a buffet, winning on a weekend such as this requires patience and discipline.
We’ll target three plays each day of Breeders’ Cup weekend, starting with a troika of opportunity on Friday: two (morning line) favorites we’re against and a potentially overlaid (i.e. underbet) favorite.
Race 6, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.
This race will almost certainly determine the champion two-year-old filly, and why not considering the presence of each of the winners of the top prep races for this: Alcibiades winner Immersive, Oak Leaf winner Non Compliant, and Frizette winner Scottish Lassie.
None of these three interest me much, though, which means this is a great race to gamble on because we’re against the top three choices on the morning line.
One of the tools handicappers use when betting the races is speed figures, and par times are a way to measure how horses stack up against a typically run race. Using Brisnet.com’s numbers, the par for this type of race is a 94 Speed Rating. But none of the aforementioned trio has run that par. Now, it is likely that one of the three will step forward Friday, but at short prices I won’t try to guess which one.
We do not have speed ratings for races in Japan, but using some inference on American Bikini’s two-for-three record with a couple wins at short prices and we can surmise that this filly by American Pharoah is pretty good. I’ll gamble that she is better than the other three.
Wagering strategy: #9 to win
Race 7, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
We’re going from trying to beat the favorites to thinking this one can’t lose. #1 Lake Victoria is not only the most likely winner of this race but also one of the most likely winners all weekend.
She has looked every bit a future superstar when winning all four of her races in Europe, including the Group 1 Cheveley Park by three lengths at 3-to-2. That type of margin is no small feat going six furlongs. This will be a two-turn distance test for the Frankel filly, but there’s really no reason to think she won’t be able to handle that–especially since she carried 128 pounds last time and gets in light on Friday at 122 pounds.
Wagering strategy: #1 to win and a strong single in all multi-race wagers
Race 8, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
#1 East Avenue has been visually impressive in both of his starts, including a romp in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. Everyone else has taken note, too, and that kind of attention attracts money. Too much money in this case.
The runner-up that day, even money favorite Ferocious, was well clear of the third-place finisher, but Ragozin Data says that one is tailing off, which makes East Avenue’s open length win look more impressive than maybe it was.
#10 Chancer McPatrick beat Ferocious two back in an upset (Ferocious was also favored there) and backed up that win a Champagne score. There is some concern about the Del Mar track profile favoring frontrunners, but there is a lot of pace in here for Chancer McPatrick to chase, and I see no reason not to play him to run a similar race as his previous two Grade 1 wins and get the dub here.
Wagering strategy: #10 to win.
Nothing too sexy about betting these races, we’re just betting logical horses to win. There is a pick 3 on races 6, 7, & 8, however, so you can lean on these three horses in that wager or the rolling doubles.
