December 18, 2024
OHIO — By Ed DeRosa
When it comes to plotting a strategy to win money betting the stakes double on Thursday at Mahoning Valley Race Course, figuring out who can run well at decent odds is more important than picking the winner.
A pair of stakes–the Bobbie Bricker Memorial for older fillies and mares going a mile and 70 yards and the Joshua Radosevich for two-year-olds going six furlongs–close the show on the eight-race card, and each features the presence of non favorites who figure to be in the mix and worth bets.
In race 7, the Bobbie Bricket Memorial, #9 Miz Keeta is a worthy 5-to-2 morning line favorite as the potential for lone speed from the outside. She made an early move when wide last out and was caught by #3 Mobil Chic in that race. History could repeat itself here, making Mobil Chic dangerous again–especially with the inside draw and generous 8-to-1 morning line price..
#1 Countess Colette came from off the pace to win in the slop last out in what was also her two-turn debut. That makes her dangerous right back with the rail post again. #2 Ima Mom showed some late kick last out, and her sire has 21% winners on an off track.
If things soften up for Miz Keeta early then both Mobil Chic and Countess Colette are dangerous here, and Ima Mom feels like a wildcard as an improving three-year-old. I will box 1, 2, 3 in the $1 exacta ($6 bet), box 1, 2, 3, 9 in the 50-cent trifecta ($12 bet), and do a $1 trifecta key 9 over 1, 2, 3 ($6 bet).
According to the morning line, race 8, the Radosevich, is a two-horse race between #5 Parlay (9-to-5) and #6 Just Like Rambo (6-to-5). The latter is the favorite, but the former is by far my preferred option, as he just appears quicker than his adversary when sprinting. The one wildcard is that Just Like Rambo’s sire, Kiss the Ghost, has 25% winners on an off track, but that’s just a variable I will let beat me since Just Like Rambo is favored.
#11 Perfect Date is interesting from the standpoint that we know he can beat others in races involving Parlay. Yes, Parlay is 3-for-3 against Perfect Date, but if we gamble on the idea that Perfect Date is better than others Parlay faces then that 12-to-1 morning line is alluring as an underneath play.
If Parlay is 3-to-2 or better then I will bet him to win. I will also bet a Parlay-Perfect Date exacta box and press the 5-11 straight combo for a bit more.
