October 24, 2024
KENTUCKY — By Ed DeRosa
You know the expression “On the outside looking in?” Well, when it comes to the Valley View Stakes on Friday at Keeneland, it might as well be “On the outside looking to win.”
We will see who actually ends up on the outside given 16 entered this one-mile turf race and only 12 can start, so some scratches could move the outside horses inside a bit, but regardless the important thing is that none of #s 10, 11, 12, or 16 (if she draws in) are likely to be favored.
The biggest price of our quartet is #10 Uphill Dance, who is 20-to-1 on the morning line returning to two turns and turf after trying sprinting on the dirt last out. She has never been two turns on turf before, but that was a decent effort routing on Woodbine’s synthetic surface when pressing the pace before tiring. The turf efforts at Woodbine have been decent, and Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott might have this one figured out for her second start for his barn.
As a Turfway Park fan, I became intimately familiar with #11 Nice As Pie as she blitzed three-year-old fillies on the synthetic surface. I am not sure her two turf tries to date are indicative of her best efforts, and we’re getting the right price to find out how much talent is really there. The stretch back out to two turns should have her somewhat involved early.
#12 Simply In Front came from way out of it last time to win the Music City Stakes (G2) at Kentucky Downs. I’d like her chances a lot more with a scratch to her inside because the outside post in 12-horse fields going a mile on the turf at Keeneland is 1-for-84 since 2015. This stat works out to be a negative on #16 should she draw in to post 12.
Morning line favorite #4 Les Reys can win, but I hate taking the favorite in races I think they’re only as good as several others. Her last start was a nice stakes win, but she will be overbet off that effort given others have run faster. #1 Opera Mundi is intriguing in her first start in North America–especially for a trainer (Brendan Walsh) who has great stats with his imports, but I am worried she will be overbet. #8 Buttercream Babe is 9-to-2 on the morning line and a complete toss for me. If she runs well after taking money, then I’m just going to lose.
The Bets
Wagering strategy wise, I think this is a good race to “go for it.” I am going to target the trifecta pool, which has a 50-cent minimum per combination.
10, 11 with 1, 4, 10, 11, 12 with 1, 4, 10, 11, 12 ($12)
1, 4, 10, 11, 12 with 10, 11 with 1, 4, 10, 11, 12 ($12)
I would also play a 10, 11, 12 exacta box, which is $6. If #16 draws in, then add her to the mix.
