March 23, 2024
LOUISIANA — By Ed DeRosa
Day to day and week to week, bettors hear a lot about the Pick 5; and why not? The potential for big payoffs attracts every level of player to this challenging wager.
But as ubiquitous as it has become on wagering menus, it is not always the best option.
Take Saturday’s blockbuster card at Fair Grounds Race Course for instance. The 12-race card ending with Fair Grounds Oaks and Louisiana Derby–100-points-to-the-winners prep races on the Kentucky Oaks and Derby trails, respectively–includes a trio of Pick 5s, but there is a pick 3 that caught my attention.
Race 10 is the Muniz Memorial Presented by (my employer) Horse Racing Nation, and it begins an all-graded stakes Pick 3 that ends with the aforementioned Oaks and Derby.
Another thing they have in common besides being graded stakes is that I do not like the morning line favorite in any of the three races.
I do not mind leaning on a favorite in a Pick 5 because you have four other races to separate from the pack, but in a pick 3 I really like the whole play to have a sort of contrarian vibe to it, and that is the case Saturday at Fair Grounds.
In the Muniz, #13 I’m Very Busy is sure to attract money given his runner-up finish in a Grade 1 last out and connections of trainer Chad Brown and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., but the outside post in 1 ⅛-mile turf races at Fair Grounds with at least 10 starters is just 1-for-24 with no other second- or third-place finishes. That’s just too tough a stat for me to take as the favorite.
Of the longshots in this race, #9 Johny’s Fireball intrigues me the most after finishing third in the prep for this. He’ll have be a little better here, but I like the run style and that jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. returns for the mount.
In the Fair Grounds Oaks, #5 Tarifa and #6 Intricate are the clear top choices. Alpine Princess is scratching, so it’s essentially an either-or play for me. Either you like one of the favorites or you don’t and can maybe spread against them a little bit. #1 V V’s Dream could improve in her second start as a three-year-old, and #8 Accomodate Eva was awesome last time.
In the Louisiana Derby, #12 Track Phantom is the 3-1 morning line favorite and impossible to use at that price. Maybe he drifts in the win betting, but in a pick 3 that starts two races earlier, people will know him as the favorite, so I’m tossing.
#4 Agate Road ran well last out in the Sam F. Davis, and the horse he chased home went on to finish second in the Tampa Bay Derby. As long as Track Phantom is not completely alone on the lead in this race, Agate Road should be able to run him down.
#5 Catching Freedom finished one place behind Track Phantom in the Risen Star but had a more adventurous trip that time, and a clear path plus another half-furlong could make the difference for him here.
The Bet:
My Pick 3 play starting in race 10 is 1, 4, 7, 9 with 1, 7, 8 with 4, 5. That is $12 per 50-cent base.
GOOD LUCK!
