Belmont Stakes- Pick 3 Betting Strategy for Saturday at Saratoga

NEW YORK — By Ed DeRosa

The bad news is, I think the races preceding the Belmont Stakes are pretty chalky; the good news is, I am against the favorites in the Belmont Stakes itself.

Thankfully, the good outweighs the bad here to create the perfect ingredients for a play in the $1 minimum Pick 3 that Saratoga offers linking these three races on Saturday.

It starts with the Metropolitan Mile Handicap, which attracted a compact field of six, but the two Grade 1 winners-Breeders’ Cup Classic winner White Abarrio and Pegasus World Cup winner National Treasure-are the heaviest of hitters in the older male division. Throw in Carter Stakes winner Post time–never worse than third in 10 career starts with 8 wins–and this is a barn burner.

I prefer National Treasure because I love his inside (post 2) draw out of the Wilson Chute, and I think he will be able to lead this group gate to wire, as I am not sure this will be the best trip for White Abarrio tracking on the outside. Post Time will be the longest price of the three, but getting to the top two is a tall task.

Thankfully, I like only prices in the Belmont Stakes, so we can use all three.

In the Manhattan Stakes for older males, I am inclined to give I’m Very Busy another shot off a disappointing seventh-place finish as the favorite in the Old Forrester Turf Classic on Kentucky Derby day. His win in the Muniz Memorial presented by Horse Racing Nation 2 ½ months ago at Fair Grounds was electrifying, and trainer Chad Brown returning here five weeks after a dud is a sign of confidence.

Of course, the European invaders will be tough with Measured Time and Nations Pride a formidable Charlie Appleby-trained duo and Al Riffa shipping in for Joseph O’Brien. At 6-to-1 morning line, Al Riffa is the longest price of the four I mentioned but can’t be discounted. He’s done well with moisture in the ground, and he will carry much less weight today than previous efforts.

Thankfully, I like only prices in the Belmont Stakes, so we can use all four.

Ah, yes, the Belmont Stakes. It’s not at Belmont Park, and it’s not 1 ½ miles, but it is still an American classic and a race anyone should want to win–even us bettors!

I am going to swing for the fences and play this race as if the Peter Pan Stakes is one of the best three-year-old races of the year. Antiquarian defeated favored The Wine Steward that day, and a repeat of that finish (or the reverse) at generous odds would not surprise me less than it would the wagering public given that both will be double digit odds.

For $24, I can play the three horses in the Met Mile, the four horses in the Manhattan, and Antiquarian and The Wine Steward in the Belmont. I’ll press that opinion with National Treasure in the Met, which allows me to add Resilience and Honor Marie in the Belmont Stakes for another $16. Total wagered: $40.

The Bets:

First Bet

$1 Pick 3: Race 10- #2, #3, #6 / Race 11- #1, #6, #7, #9 / Race 12- #4, #5 ($24 total)

Second Bet

$1 Pick 3: Race 10- #2 / Race 11- #1, #6, #7, #9 / Race 12- #2, #4, #5, #8 ($16 total)

Total Spend = $40