Beginner’s Guide to the Kentucky Derby: Qualifying + Betting Strategy

LOUISVILLE — By Ed DeRosa

With more than two dozen horses still under consideration for the Kentucky Derby, you’re going to be hearing a lot about “the Derby Points system” leading up to the May 4 race at Churchill Downs.

So, here is how horses qualify for the $5-million race that celebrates its 150th running this year in Louisville.

How Do Horses Qualify?:

The first thing to know is that Churchill controls it all: the host racetrack determines which races at its own and other tracks offer points as well as how many points those races offer. 

The schedule begins in September with races worth 21 points total, including 10 to the winners, and continues until early January. The only exception to value in that time is the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, which is worth 63 points, including 30 to the winner. The next step is a shorter series of races in January-February worth 42 points each, including 20 to the winner.

Following those races, the Kentucky Derby Championship Series begins with the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, and this round of preps–part 1–is worth 105 points each, including 50 to the winner. Part 2 of the Championship Series is worth 210 points each, including 100 to the winner.

More often than that, horsemen and scribes alike refer to these races by how many points they’re worth to the winner. So the Florida Derby, for example, is often called “a 100-point race.”

Winning a race in either part of the Championship Series pretty much carries with it an automatic bid to the Derby starting gate since 50 or 100 points is enough to qualify. The “100-point races” also offer 50 points for second, so a runner up finish in the final round of preps is also enough.

As a handicapper, it is important to remember that the points system is not meant to rank horses in terms of talent. The system’s sole purpose is to determine the horses who get to enter (up to 24) and start (up to 20) in the Kentucky Derby.

If the Derby does not attract more than 20 entrants then the points system does not come into play at all. I.e., the points system is only used if more than 24 horses want to enter and more than 20 want to start.

Why does a racetrack allow more horses to enter than can start? Think of that as an airline overbooking a flight expecting scratches. Every horse in the gate up to 20 is worth millions in handle to Churchill Downs, so it wants to give itself and horseplayers the best chance to offer betting on a 20-horse field.

This year, the Kentucky Derby post draw will be earlier than ever with a special event on opening night, Saturday, April 27, at the track’s new $200-million paddock. If more than 20 enter then up to four horses will be placed on what’s called the also eligible list, meaning they’re also eligible to compete if one of the 20 assigned a starting spot scratch before Thursday, May 4.

Points determine the order of preference on the also eligible list.

This year, with T O Password expected to accept Churchill’s invitation to compete in the Derby based on his performance in the Japan series of races to earn a starting spot, the top 19 points earners will get a spot in the starting gate with the 20th through 23rd earners on the also eligible list.

Betting Strategy:

Lastly, earnings points have no real utility toward handicapping the race. Sure, generally speaking the horses who win the graded stakes races to earn 50-100 points are among the best in their generation, but do not shy away from betting horses with low points totals–especially at big prices. 

After all, Rich Strike won off the also eligible list in 2022, and Country House was one of the last horses to qualify in 2019.