March 20, 2025
NEW ORLEANS — By Ed DeRosa
When it comes to handicapping the Jeff Ruby Steaks as part of the Kentucky Derby Championship Series, I sort of have two picks on the line Saturday at Turfway Park.
Poster is the first horse running in a Kentucky Derby prep that I am not only excited to bet this weekend but also a potential value play in the Kentucky Derby itself.
Poster has done well with each challenge thrown at him, winning his first two career starts on turf before switching to dirt to win the 1 ⅛-mile Remsen Stakes to conclude his two-year-old season. In his first start as a three-year-old, he finished third behind John Hancock and Owen Almighty in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. The former is the morning line favorite for the Louisiana Derby (more on that below), and the latter won the Tampa Bay Derby last out.
Poster was no match for those two in the Davis, but was the best of the rest and should have a better pace set up in the Ruby going 1 ⅛ miles, anyway. The newest challenge for this Munnings colt is synthetic, but he trains here for Eoin Hearty, and given the turf and dirt prowess there is no reason to think he cannot handle this surface either.
Betting on Poster will obviously keep me interested enough, but since I give this colt more than a puncher’s chance to win the Kentucky Derby–to the point that I wagered him in Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4–I’ll be looking not only for a win but also a performance that tells me this one can be a force on May 3 at Churchill Downs.
As for the Louisiana Derby, I am not as bullish on the favorite there (the aforementioned John Hancock) as I am on the Ruby chalk (Poster). There is plenty of other pace to keep the undefeated Davis winner company, and while I do not mind the rail for him (especially with Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavian Prat aboard), I do think that starting position keeps him from being able to relax behind the pace of horses like Yinzer and Furio.
So who could benefit from such a pace? I prefer the mid-pack / presser-style horses than the deep closers in a race like this. Built can improve off that Risen Star when he chased run-off winner Magnitude and still held sway for third. Instant Replay has run fast numbers to date, and this is a class test for him, but he figures to get the right trip.
Chunk of Gold and Hypnus have attracted some interest as closers, but I’m going to let them beat me at prices that will be way shorter than I think they should be.
The Bet:
From a wagering standpoint, the Ruby is all about Poster. He is a stone-cold single in all multi-race wagers and a win bet at > 2-to-1. In the Louisiana Derby, I’d love to get live to both Built and Instant Replay and play them in an exacta with each other.
