April 17, 2025
KENTUCKY — By Ed DeRosa
I love top X lists (top 5, top 10, top pi, it doesn’t matter), but this is the time of year I eschew countdowns in favor of what I call buckets.
Put another way, anyone can tell you that Santa Anita Derby winner Journalism is a top contender and likely favorite for the Kentucky Derby on May 3 at Churchill Downs. Now is the time to start thinking whether these horses are worth a bet. And that’s not from just a win betting standpoint, either, exotics bets such as the trifecta pay so well in the Derby because of the big (up to 20-horse) field that plotting strategy now can be dividends later.
Of course, plenty of variables are still to come such as who actually enters the race, final jockey assignments, workout reports, and post position, but we know enough about the field to start strategizing on how to get a piece of that trifecta pie.
So with the Derby two weeks from Saturday, here are my current classifications:
Key contenders to bet to win the race:
For now, the aforementioned Journalism is here. His San Felipe Stakes win was the best of any prep race, and while certain metrics have him moving backward in the Santa Anita Derby (a bad sign), he did overcome trouble to do it and dug in to beat a good horse late (a good sign). The odds will be interesting on this one. After the Santa Anita Derby win–his third stakes in a row–it looked as if he could be as low as 2-to-1 in the Derby, but I think he has drifted and 3-to-1 is possible.
Racing Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott thought enough of Sovereignty to run him as a maiden in the Street Sense Stakes last year at Churchill Downs. Sovereignty not only passed that class test with an impressive five-length win over eventual Louisiana and Arkansas Derby winners Sandman and Tiztastic, respectively, but also showed he can win beneath the Twin Spires. He has moved forward as a three-year-old and any further improvement in the Derby could be good enough to win.
It took the entirety of the Derby prep season to sort out, but Rodriguez is trainer Bob Baffert’s best chance to win the Derby this year. Baffert’s battalion also includes the likes of champion Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Citizen Bull, but his disappointing fourth-place behind Journalism and Baeza mere hours after Rodriguez won the Wood Memorial Stakes gate-to-wire changed the pecking order. Rodriguez raced from off the pace when chasing his stablemates Barnes and Citizen Bull in previous stakes races but went right to the front when winning the Wood. Derby tactics are still unknown with both Citizen Bull and Madaket Road expected in the gate as well, but that was a break through performance for Rodriguez.
Longshots worth considering in exotic wagers:
Chunk of Gold has a pattern that makes me think he can be this year’s Golden Soul or Commanding Curve at the very least and maybe even this year’s Rich Strike with the right trip and tons of pace. He improved in each of his two prep races at Fair Grounds, finishing second to a pair of Steve Asmussen trainees in Magnitude in the Risen Star and Tiztastic in the Louisiana Derby. He was never winning either race, but I like that each race was better. There is a progression here, and he can be in the picture at a big price come May 3.
Calling Grande a longshot might be a bit of a stretch, but I don’t see him as any lower than 8th choice in a field of 20, and he is a more likely winner than that. His runner-up finish to Rodriguez was solid given he was best of the rest behind him, and though lightly raced he keeps moving forward and the distance should be no issue with him being by two-time Horse of the Year Curlin.
Horses who will get bet that I don’t like:
Arkansas Derby winner Sandman was favored with certain Nevada-based bookmakers earlier this month, and while the chalk mantle is safely in Journalism’s corner now, this horse is taking a lot of action off one stakes win that came after closing in to a total pace collapse. Maybe similar happens in the Derby, but there are other closers I’d rather bet at much bigger prices.
Louisiana Derby winner Tiztastic closed resolutely to snap a five-race winning streak, but bettors like 1s, and I’m not sure he’s worth the added buzz just because he won. One of my favorite cliches is, “can’t use’em all!” and Tiztastic just feels like one of those who will be overbet.
As for the rest (13 others if a full gate of 20), we’ll take a wait-and-see approach with which bucket they ultimately fit into. Stay tuned to this space for Kentucky Derby handicapping and wagering strategy!
