April 3, 2025
CALIFORNIA — By Ed DeRosa
Unlike the Kentucky Derby, whose favorite hangs in the balance of this week’s action, the Kentucky Oaks most definitely has a clear favorite for May 2 at Churchill Downs.
Good Cheer is undefeated after six starts, winning by a combined 42 ¼ lengths with both her starts as a three-year-old being Grade 2 victories at Fair Grounds Race Course by a combined 9 ¾ lengths.
Good Cheer’s connections have all won the Kentucky Oaks with owner-breeder Godolphin capturing the 2023 lilies with Pretty Mischievious. Jockey Luis Saez won in 2022 with Secret Oath, and trainer Brad Cox has the 2018 and 2020 races on his resume with Monomoy Girl and Shedaresthedevil.
All that is to say that Good Cheer checks a lot of boxes in terms of what makes her a worthy favorite, but I am keeping an open mind this weekend in terms of identifying a three-year-old filly who could challenge her.
Just as there are three Kentucky Derby prep races coming up, there are accompanying Oaks preps: The Gazelle Stakes at Aqueduct and Santa Anita Oaks at Santa Anita Park are both on Saturday with post times around 4:30 p.m. EDT for both. The Ashland Stakes is Monday at Keeneland.
I have the Gazelle as the least likely to have an impact on the Oaks itself. Ballerina d’Oro has had some buzz to her, but I did not love her return in the Davona Dale Stakes, and she will be too short a price here.
Pure Beauty intrigues me given her closing style and the presence of plenty of speed here. If Pure Beauty is not the favorite here then I would bet her to win, but I can’t imagine liking anyone out of this race from an Oaks perspective.
The Santa Anita Oaks features Tenma, who will be impossible to bet at odds on but could give us a glimpse at Good Cheer’s greatest challenge. Tenma has a similar trajectory to Journlism on the Derby side, as she won the final start of her two-year-old season before returning with an emphatic 6 ½-length victory against just two overmatched rivals in the Las Virgenes Stakes last out. Trained by Bob Baffert, Tenma has fast figures and being by Derby winner Nyquist out of a Tapit mare has no concerns about the Oaks 1 ⅛-mile distance.
The Ashland does not have quite the star power as Tenma, but is a deeper race with more talent than the Gazelle. Cox trains Muhimma, who some saw as Good Cheer’s chief rival, but her three-year-old debut was disappointing, and like Ballerina d’Oro, she has more buzz than accomplishment following the Demoiselle Stakes (which Muhimma won over Ballerina d’Oro).
Supa Speed is the 4-to-1 third choice on the morning line in the Ashland and offers both value in this spot and possibly a look forward in the Oaks as well. She is bred on the so-called Triple Crown cross because her sire Justify won the 2018 Triple Crown and her dam’s sire American Pharoah was the 2015 Triple Crown champion.
The only way Good Cheer is not the Oaks favorite is if she does not enter the race. Both Tenma and Supa Speed are worth watching this weekend as potential challengers to her and what would be generous odds.