March 27, 2025
FLORIDA — By Ed DeRosa
The Sport of Kings is a gambling game, so we’re going to do some gambling on the Kentucky Derby prep races on Saturday.
I am introducing it in this way because neither of our wagers will rely on the obvious favorites in either of the Florida or Arkansas Derbys at Gulfstream and Oaklawn Parks, respectively.
The Florida Derby features the return of Fountain of Youth Stakes winner Sovereignty, and while this Bill Mott trainee is certainly the most likely winner, I am hunting bigger game here.
#7 Enterdadragon is 30-1 on the morning line and might go off even higher than that as not only Sovereignty is sure to take money but so too is Disruptor off an impressive maiden win for trainer Todd Pletcher. Enterdadragon is a longshot for a reason–being winless in five stakes attempts including a fifth-place finish in the Aventura, his lone dirt try.
But there are some things to like! He made a bold move into a fast pace last out in a one-mile turf race and stayed on well to be second. Similar tactics here behind the speed going 1 ⅛ miles could make him interesting to land a piece of this.
Wagering wise, of course I’m going to bet to win, but there are some exotic opportunities as well. #1 Neoequos, #4 Disruptor, #8 Madaket Road, #9 Tappan Street, and #10 Sovereignty are all capable of winning this race. Keying Enterdadragon underneath them in a $1 exacta costs $5 and doing a 50-cent trifecta key box (7 with 1, 4, 8, 9, 10) is $30.
As for the Arkansas Derby, that features an even bigger favorite in maiden winner Cornucopian. This Bob Baffert trainee is going from a six-furlong maiden win to a 1 ⅛-mile Grade 1 race. The pundits say Cornucopian is up to the task, but I have to bet against such an outcome at odds on.
Both #6 Sandman and #8 Coal Battle are logical alternatives, and it is a big drop in terms of who I see as my fourth choice in this group, so I’m going to just lean on both to try to upset Cornucopian.
Sandman has had rough trips, which everyone is aware of, and that usually suppresses the price, but Cornucopian should ensure fair value on our alternative. Likewise for Coal Battle, typically a resume of his type would lead to favortism in a race like this, but he won’t be.
I will do an exacta box 6-8. It’s not super sexy by any means, but the value will be there.