January 30, 2025
LOUISIANA — By Ed DeRosa
The trio of Kentucky Derby prep races on Saturday have two different utilities among them: The Holy Bull and Withers Stakes are good betting races; the Bob & Beverly Lewis Stakes is not, but it is most likely to produce Triple Crown contenders.
Let’s start with the latter, a one-mile test at Santa Anita that attracted just five entrants but serious star power in champion Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Citizen Bull among three Bob Baffert-trained colts.
No exaggeration, I give Baffert a 98.2% chance to win this race. Obviously Citizen Bull will attract attention off his championship campaign, but I think Rodriguez has the chance to be the better horse not only here but also throughout the Kentucky Derby trail. His maiden-breaking performance four weeks ago was extremely impressive.
Madaket Road will be the third choice here, but make no mistake: He belongs with Baffert’s titans and would be favored in either of the other points races this weekend. If Citizen Bull is favored, then Rodriguez is the best bet, but if he is favored then I’d take a flyer on Madaket Road.
The other two races promise much more opportunity as I don’t love either of the favorites: Ferocious in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park and Captain Cook in the Withers at Aqueduct.
Ferocious had a solid two-year-old season, looking awesome in his debut followed by a pair of runner-up finishes behind buzzsaws Chancer McPatrick and East Avenue before getting shuffled back behind a slow pace in the Breeders’ Cup. Blinkers go on here, and I carefully chose the words “don’t love” for him and Captain Cook because both deserve to take money, just not the amount they will take.
Tappan Street looked good on debut, but stretching out while moving up to stakes company is a tall order. I prefer him to Ferocious, but I think an even bigger price is possible.
Enter Burnham Square, who seemed to figure it out last time out when adding blinkers. That was a fast race, and trainer Ian Wilkes is not the type that attracts money just because, so should be no issue getting at least his 4-to-1 morning line price here.
As for the Withers, Captain Cook is similar to Ferocious in that I understand why he’s favored, but I’ll tell you why I’m not betting him. Captain Cook is stretching out here to 1 ⅛ miles, and I’m not sure his sire, Practical Joke, is the type who wants to father quality runners beyond 1 1/16 miles. Couple that with likely pace pressure from the rail horse, and I think he’s a bad bet.
That pace pressure is what makes Omaha Omaha a solid play here. He has shown great ability to close resolutely into fast paces in his last two races, and unlike Captain Cook, I think he will appreciate the added distance here.
Here is how I will bet each of these races:
Lewis Stakes: Madaket Road to win and straight exacta Rodriguez with Madaket Road
Holy Bull Stakes: Burnham Square to win and exacta key box with Tappan Street and Guns Loaded
Withers Stakes: Omaha Omaha to win
