December 5, 2024
NEW YORK — By Ed DeRosa
The last big day of racing in New York this year is Saturday at Aqueduct where a quartet of graded stakes takes place headlined by the $500,000 Cigar Mile Handicap.
The Remsen and Demoiselle Stakes for two-year-old males and fillies, respectively, begins an all-Grade 2 pick 3 that ends with the Cigar Mile, and I have singles to start and end the sequence: One is a lock and the other is Locked.
OK, there’s no such thing as a lock in horse racing, but who could resist that word play? Not me, obviously. Anyway, #5 Keewaydin looks like the juvenile to beat in the Remsen with the demanding 1 ⅛-mile distance the biggest test for this son of Instagrand.
Keewaydin was wide on debut going six furlongs at Saratoga then stretched out to seven furlongs in career start number two and ran an impressive race at short odds against a small field. Several others in here do have wins around two turns, but none have come close to the speed ratings/figures of Keewaydin. If he does not win then it is anyone’s race.
The Cigar Mile looks much more competitive with 11 entered and five horses between 7-to-2 and 6-to-1 on Dave Aragona’s morning line. I am extremely bullish on #7 Locked, the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile beaten favorite who returned from an 11-month layoff to crush an allowance-optional claimer field seven weeks ago at Aqueduct.
That race was as good as any he had run as a juvenile, and with the proper spacing and an extra furlong here (seven furlongs to a mile), I expect Locked to run even better in the Cigar Mile. He is 9-to-2 on the morning line, and I would be excited to bet him at 4-to-1 or higher.
That’s in the win pool, though. We mentioned the all-Grade 2 Pick 3, and while Keewaydin is 6-to-5 morning line for the Remsen, there is an even shorter price in the Demoiselle.
#1 Muhimma is 4-to-5 after winning both her starts by a combined 13 lengths. One thing New York racing has is $1 minimum pick 3s, and I do think that helps the payouts. With the 11-horse Cigar Mile closing out the pick 3 and our willingness to lean on Locked in a competitive race, here is how I’d play this bet.
The Bets:
Race 7, $1 pick 3 wheel ALL with 1 with 7 ($7 [assuming no scratches])
Race 7, $1 pick 3 wheel 5 with ALL with 7 ($10 [assuming no scratches])
Race 7 $10 pick 3 wheel 5 with 1 with 7 ($10)
TOTAL: $27
Notice I did not use ALL in the last leg (the Cigar Mile). That is because that is my strongest opinion in terms of value, and I’m not looking to bet against that when using favorites in the other two spots.
