October 31, 2024
SAN DIEGO — By Ed DeRosa
Breeders’ Cup is always exciting, but this year’s Championship Saturday on Nov. 2 at Del Mar is a smorgasbord of opportunity for the bettor looking to make a big, maybe even life-changing, score.
For MyRailbirds, we’re targeting the Distaff-Turf-Classic (races 6-8) Pick 3 as an opportunity to make a big score.
Race 6, the Breeders’ Cup Distaff
Thorpedo Anna is one of the most exciting, successful, and celebrated horses running in the Breeders’ Cup. She is also going to be one of the shortest prices, and I’m going to try to beat her.
Bottom up on her past performances, there is nothing to discount her chances. Her only loss this year came against Fierceness in the Travers Stakes. I.e. she is undefeated against three-year-old fillies.
But there is an important modifier there: three-year-old. She has yet to face older, and her only race outside her division was a loss (albeit in a stellar performance). Three-year-old fillies are terrible bets in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, and based on performance figures, Thorpedo Anna’s win in the Cotillion Stakes last out was a step backward from her consistent greatness in the Oaks, Acorn, and Coaching Club. I have to gamble against her here.
#9 Awesome Result is the pick. She is undefeated in Japan, and of the 19 Japan-based runners, hers is a name that keeps coming up among Japan’s best chances. Without Thorpedo Anna, she might actually be favored in this spot, but instead we’re going to get at least 3-to-1, and I’m going to take it.
Race 7, the Breeders’ Cup Turf
Japan has a solid shot in this race as well with #3 Shahryar, who would be playable at his 10-to-1, but I think will be shorter based on the buzz he has generated this week at Del Mar and even off his third-place finish in last year’s Turf at Santa Anita Park.
I am going to hunt bigger game with #7 Golden Sonata, who I thought ran huge last out at Kentucky Downs. The top three choices are all European shippers, and I think this is the year o take a shot at those invaders.
Because we’re singled against the big favorite in the Distaff, I’m comfortable spreading here with prices and will use 3, 4, 6, 7 in the pick 3.
Race 8, the Breeders’ Cup Classic
The richest race in North America is not only the anchor leg of our pick 3 here but also the all-important swing race on a pair of all-Breeders’ Cup pick 5s, as the Classic ends the races 4-8 sequence and begins the late (races 8-12) sequence.
It’s a compelling race featuring legitimate contenders from three countries and question marks surrounding each of the top three choices.
#3 City of Troy is a multiple Group 1 winner on turf in Europe, and dirt is too much a question for me to take him as the favorite. If he wins, though, he is unquestionably the best horse in the world.
#1 Forever Young had his undefeated career interrupted with a hard-luck third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He’s back to his winning ways but drew the rail.
#9 Fierceness also hiccuped in the Kentucky Derby, a race he was favored to win. He has come back to win the Jim Dandy and Travers Stakes, and while he has already shown an ability to ship West and win by virtue of his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile score last year, it is impossible to ignore the bad races have been really bad.
So, I’m tossing City of Troy and using both Forever Young and Fierceness.
But I really like #7 Ushba Tesoro, who made a nice move in last year’s Classic before flattening out. The Saudi and Dubai World Cups were good races but not quite the level to rise to win. This is the type of horse I would hate at a short price, but has shown too much to let beat me at his 12-to-1 morning line price.
I’m going to throw on #s 8 and 13 as big longshots as well. Pyrenees is consistent and at 30-to-1 I’ll gamble that he can get an incredible trip to shock the world. Newgate won the Santa Anita Handicap at this distance earlier this year and could be building back to that after a solid California Crown effort.
Race 6, $1 pick 3: 9 with 3, 4, 6, 7 with 1, 7, 8, 9, 13 = $20
