May 16, 2024
PIMLICO — By Ed DeRosa
One of the most popular bets on Kentucky Derby weekend is the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double, tying together the Kentucky Oaks for three-year-old fillies and its counterpart the next day.
Well, good news! The good folks at Pimlico Race Course offer something similar with the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes on Friday serving as the front half to a two-day double that concludes with the Preakness Stakes, the middle jewel of American Thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown.
The complexion of the Preakness completely changed with the scratch of morning line favorite Muth, but that is just as well because we’re on the opening odds favorite in the Black-Eyed Susan, and the Preakness will help us spice the BES-Preakness double.
I am staunchly in the camp of #7 Corposo in the Black-Eyed Susan, the Santa Anita Oaks third-place finisher who ships east for trainer Peter Eurton in what will be just her second stakes race try with only a maiden win to her credit.
What Corposo lacks in class against five stakes winners in this field of eight, she makes up for in talent, as she is the fastest horse in the race based on Ragozin Speed Figures, and I do not think she will have any trouble stretching out to the 1 ⅛ miles distance.
And it’s not like the Santa Anita Oaks was that bad anyway. Sure, she was beaten by a city block, but so was the rest of the field. She was only a half-length out of second, and it was eight lengths back to fourth.
The race shape seems to favor her as well, as there are two speedy types to her inside, and the primary speed is to her outside. She should sit a great trip under jockey Tyler Gaffalione, and is the only horse I’m betting in this race.
The Preakness is not as quite straight forward to me, but I do think it’s worth opposing Mystik Dan as the favorite now that Muth is out. It’s not that he can’t win-of course the Kentucky Derby winner is a big threat here; it’s that he will be around 3-to-2 (+150 in sports betting parlance), and I just don’t see him as that likely to win.
#9 Imagination and #8 Tuscan Gold are the two I’m most interested in. The former could be lone speed, and that makes him super tough with Frankie Dettori riding for Racing Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. Tuscan Gold will have to catch our top pick, but the price will be right to do so.
#7 Just Steel is a wildcard. I was lukewarm–even chilly–on him earlier in the week, but I have warmed to his chances as an upset threat given that his Ragozin Speed Figure from his second-place finish in the Arkansas Derby is uber competitive here. Yeah, the Derby was a dud, but I can’t dismiss a horse who ran as well as he did in the race the Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness morning line favorite both exited as well.
So how to bet this double?
I’d pick #7 Corposo (Black-Eyed Susan) + #7 Just Steel (Preakness) to win. Then another win bet on #7 + #8 Tuscan Gold, and #7 + #9 Imagination.
GOOD LUCK and enjoy Preakness weekend!
