March 28, 2024
NEW MEXICO — By Ed DeRosa
It’s a tale of two stakes races on Friday at Sunland Park with a pair of $250,000 races for New Mexico-bred three-year-olds featuring a competitive group in the Oaks (race 7) and a much stronger favorite in the Derby (race 8).
In the Oaks, this septet of three-year-old fillies is pretty light on two-turn experience. As a group, they are winless in four tries at a route, and a trio of fillies have yet to stretch out. Given the futility of those who have, I am inclined to gamble on one of the horses trying something new being better than the ones who have already failed.
#5 Scary Cherry interests me most in this regard. The trainer has great statistics with stretching out his runners, and the filly’s debut was sparkling. She won a maiden race four weeks ago by 5 ¾ lengths. There is a big difference between a 5 ½-furlong sprint and a 1 1/16-mile route, but I am encouraged that her sire, Metaboss, won a 1 ⅛-mile graded stakes race during his career.
The Derby does look a little more straightforward given that the 7-to-5 morning line favorite, #1 Community Leader, already has a stakes win around two turns. He ran his record to 8-for-9 lifetime when winning the Red Hedeman Mile on Feb. 18 at Sunland over five of the six foes he faces here.
Unfortunately, Community Leader is likely to be less than even money odds in here, so from a wagering perspective, this is a tough race to get excited about where as the Oaks (race 7) seems to definitely have opportunity.
The Bet:
We’re going to put all our eggs in the New Mexico Breeders’ Oaks basket by betting #5 Scary Cherry to win race 7 and then do exacta bets with 4, 5, and 7 to finish second in that race.
