November 10, 2023
CHURCHILL DOWNS — By Jessica Paquette
How do you handicap a maiden claiming race?
This can be one of the trickier kinds of races to evaluate because it can be a combination of inexperience and horses who, at this point, may not have lived up to lofty expectations. A maiden race is a race restricted to horses that have never won a race and a claiming race means that they are all for sale in that race for a set price.
At Churchill Downs on Saturday, race six is a maiden claiming race where all of the contestants are in for a $50,000 price tag. That is a long way from the bottom and there are some interesting contenders in the full field of twelve. Let’s take a look at some basic rules I try to utilize when handicapping a maiden claiming race.
Less Starts the Better
At a certain point, a horse will show you everything they are and everything they are not. For me, when I am handicapping a maiden race, inexperience becomes appealing. Hope springs eternal with a first time starter and before the gates open, they could be any kind of champion regardless of where they are beginning their career. I also like a horse making their second start – sometimes a debut race can be an educational experience and you can see a big step forward.
In the sixth race at Churchill Downs, Superhero is an interesting first time starter for a barn that hits at 12% with debut runners. Though that stat isn’t that eye catching, it is worth noting that Steve Asmussen does show a 21% rate when he debuts his horses in a claiming race.
Equipment Changes
With maidens and young horses, trainers can still be figuring out the puzzle for what works best for them. A horse that is getting an equipment change – say blinkers on or off – can be interesting. Look at trainer intent Tapitboy was claimed for $20,000 in his last start where he showed speed and ran well. Now, he gets the addition of blinkers and a significant step up in class from $20,000 to $50,000 indicating that the trainer may think he got a good deal on him and he is worth more than what he initially paid.
Second Start the Charm
For a horse like Googol Joke, sometimes they just make sense. This horse showed a solid effort in his debut and now nothing changes – he runs back at the same level with the same connections. He showed professionalism and ability in that debut and on paper, he is the one to beat.
