October 14, 2023
KENTUCKY — By Ed DeRosa
Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes: A Lesson in Class
Tahiyra is one of the best turf fillies in the world, while she is not a part of the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup field on Saturday at Keeneland, the last horse to beat her is. That is #4 Mawj, and my thinking is, if she is good enough to beat Tahiyra then she is good enough to beat this field.
That is basically class handicapping in a nutshell. What can how a horse performed against certain other horses tell us about what to expect in this race? Given that Tahiyra went on to win three Group 1 races in Europe after losing to Mawj, we can surmise that she [Tahiyra] is pretty good and thus, so must be the filly that beat her.
That is not to say that Mawj is not without her questions, however, She has not raced since dealing Tahiyra her lone career defeat. That was May 7 in England. She also has never raced beyond a mile in 8 career starts, and the QE2 is 1 ⅛ miles.
Neither of those things are dealbreakers by any means, but class handicapping (or really, any style of handicapping) is only one piece of the puzzle. The final piece should always be price. Mawj is worth a bet at anything above even money. She is 2-to-1 on the morning line, so I have some hope that we will get that number.
Speaking of Tahiyra and class, another filly in this field has tussled with the multiple Group 1 winner: #7 Sounds of Heaven was third, beaten just a length by Tahiyra in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. She went on to finish sixth in her next start in France before receiving a brief freshening and showing up here. At 8-to-1 morning line she is worth using with our top pick if you’re betting exactas and trifectas.
Lastly, it is important to note that #13 Freydis the Red is on the also eligible list. A maximum of 12 horses can start in the QE2, so Freydis the Red needs a scratch in order to run. Should that happen, she is worth a look at her 10-to-1 morning line price.
A Longshot in the Maryland Million Classic
Betting on horse racing is always exciting, but the excitement that comes from the anticipation of betting a long shot you think has a big shot is a different level.
That is where I am at right now as I type this thinking about #3 Dolice Vita in the Maryland Million Classic on Saturday at Laurel Park.
Dolice Vita had not raced for four months when he raced on Sept. 30 at Laurel, finishing third in that comeback race. He was beaten 8 ½ lengths, but there were some encouraging signs given that he made up 10 lengths on the runaway winner.
This is a good lesson for form handicapping too because many horses improve second race off a layoff, but the first race off the layoff has to at least be decent, which is in play here. So you have the decent race off the layoff and now an improved race second time back, and looking at Dolice Vita’s best races, he can move forward even more.
Dolice Vita is 20-to-1 on the morning line, and I would bet him to win without hesitation at even half that price.
There is one final caveat for this race, and it is another lesson for the Railbirds faithful: make sure to watch for scratches and which eligible horses might draw in. Each race has a maximum number of participants, and that number is 8 for this one, but 11 horses entered. #11 Big Blue Line would easily be the most likely winner of this should he draw in. If that happens, I’ll still bet Dolice Vita to win but also bet exactas and trifectas with #11.
