August 19, 2023
WOODBINE — In sports betting, one popular strategy involves looking at a team or player’s past performance and comparing it to the present as a means of predicting a potential outcome. The same can be done in horse racing. We’ve decided to spice things up a little bit and put a King’s Plate spin on this tried and tested strategy. Saddle up and take a look at this year’s field through the lens of previous Plate victors.
The Favourites
Kalik (3-1, opening line odds)
Past Winner: Safe Conduct (3-1), 2019
This year’s Plate favourite, Kalik, certainly looks the part. Coming into Sunday’s affair, the Chad Brown pupil owns a 3-0-0 record in four starts this season. At 3-1, the colt has the same odds that Safe Conduct did when he won the Plate in 2019 for WellSpring Stables. That year, top North American jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. rode Safe Conduct to victory. This time around, Woodbine’s top rider in 2023, Kazushi Kimura, has his sights set on delivering the same result with Kalik.
Stanley House (4-1, opening line odds)
Past Winner: Not Bourbon (9-2), 2008
Not far behind Kalik is Stanley House, who checks in to this year’s race at 4-1. Owned by John and Diana Russell and trained by veteran horseman Mike De Paulo, Stanley House has put together an impressive 2-3-0 record in seven career starts. His Plate-winning parallel, Not Bourbon, took home the trophy 15 years ago in 2008 at 9-2. Comparatively, Not Bourbon was more heavily raced entering the Plate with 10 starts under his belt.
Kaukokaipuu (6-1, opening line odds)
Past Winner: Niigon (6-1), 2004
Finnish for “wanderlust,” Kaukokaipuu is a horse bettors should keep their eye on. In 11 career starts, the colt has never finished below fourth, and owns a remarkably consistent 2-7-0 line. For a horse that’s always hovering around the top spot, 6-1 sounds awfully enticing. When Niigon won 2004’s running of the most prestigious race in Canadian Thoroughbred racing, his 2004 season got off to a much slower start. The Eric Coatrieux-trained runner eventually found his footing in the two races leading up to the Plate.
The Middle of the Pack
Elysian Field (8-1, opening line odds)
Past Winner: Regal Discovery (9-1), 1995
Elysian Field, who is one of two fillies in this year’s King’s Plate, enters the race in fine fettle at 8-1. The Mark Casse trainee battled through a tough beginning to 2023 to rattle off a 2-1-0 record in her final three starts leading up to Sunday’s showdown. Regal Discovery, her champion comparison, won the Plate in 1995, 25 years before she was born. Despite owning the seventh-best odds in that race, Regal Discovery bested the competition to pay $20.10.
Paramount Prince (10-1, opening line odds)
Past Winner: Sir Dudley Digges (15-1), 2016
Paramount Prince has hit the board in all five career starts, capped off by a victory in the Plate Trial Stakes on July 23. Altogether, the gelding sports a 2-2-1 line. With champion rider Patrick Husbands calling the shots, Paramount Prince will look to translate the success he found in the Plate Trial to the big stage. Though not exactly the same, Sir Dudley Digges brought home the 2016 Plate at 15-1. If anything, the lesson here is that a good horse can defy the odds with one strong run.
Wickenheiser (12-1, opening line odds), Touch’n Ride (12-1, opening line odds)
Past Winner: Blue Light (18-1), 1961
Wickenheiser, who joins Elysian Field as the second filly in the field, and Touch’n Ride, a very lightly raced gelding (two career starts), both head into the $1 million meet at 12-1. The former is as steady as they come, never finishing lower than fifth in six career starts. The latter has performed admirably in limited action, a 1-0-1 line, but has a championship bloodline through the aforementioned Niigon. For their comparison, we had to go back aways to Blue Light, who won the 1961 Plate at 18-1. Again, these odds aren’t identical, but this more or less proves that they’re both more than capable of pulling through.
The Longshots
Moon Landing (20-1, opening line odds)
Past Winner: Driving Home (21-1), 1980
In theory, calling Moon Landing a longshot at 20-1, while grouping past winner Blue Light in with the middle of the pack seems odd, but trust me, it works. Now, the case of Moon Landing is interesting. The colt won his first career start before producing a four-start stretch without a top- three finish. Overall, he’s gone 1-0-1 in six starts. His comparison, Driving Home, also strung together a series of uncharacteristic runs before settling down to capture the 1980 Plate at 21-1.
Cool Kiss (30-1), Midnight in Malibu (30-1), Philip My Dear (30-1), Silent Miracle (30-1), Twin City (30-1), Twowaycrossing (30-1), Velocitor (30-1); all opening line odds
Past Winner: Royal Chocolate (23-1), 1973
No store will ever be able to offer you the same kind of 7-for-1 deal that I’m about to give you. That’s right, there are seven horses listed at 30-1 going into the race. So, what does that mean? Over 40% of Plate participants are indistinguishable from the others, according to oddsmakers. Getting into this territory makes it difficult to find suitable comparisons, but 1973 Plate winner Royal Chocolate fits the bill pretty nicely. The Stafford Farm product put together a very strong career (13-12-11 line in 55 starts), highlighted by an early 70’s Plate triumph at 23-1.
Morstachy’s (50-1, opening line odds)
Past Winner: T J’s Lucky Moon (82-1), 2002
Let’s play, ‘Pick a Quote.’ Will you go with a. “Anything’s possible!” from NBA Hall of Famer Kevin Garnett or b. “So, you’re telling me there’s a chance” from Jim Carrey’s Lloyd Christmas. The best part is, there’s no right answer because both apply to Morstachy’s, the Plate’s longest shots at 50-1. Even better, T J’s Lucky Moon won at 82-1 in 2002 to pay $166! If one of the biggest underdog winners in Plate history, Queen’s or King’s, can pull that off, who’s to say that’s not in the cards for Morstachy’s?
By: Matthew Lomon
